Why Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Putin's scheduled talks on the almost four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold.

Reports of an impending US-Russia leadership summit have been overstated, apparently.

Just days after President Trump said he planned to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.

A preliminary meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump informed reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
  • Donald Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
  • Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves Washington without results

The frequently changing summit is just the latest twist in Trump's efforts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.

During a speech in Egypt recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he declared.

Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost several years.

Less Leverage

Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's move to attack Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but provided Trump bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president benefited from a history of supporting the Israeli state since his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to move the US embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israeli defense operations against Iran.

The American leader, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.

Add in the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.

At the same time, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the nation - only to then retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.

Trump often boasts about his skill to meet and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the war any closer to a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded little tangible outcome.

Putin may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.

In July, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards put on hold.

Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader called the US president who then promoted the possible summit in Hungary.

The next day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.

Trump maintained that he was not being played by Putin.

"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the sequence of events.

"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he said.

Thus, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – even territory Russia has been failed to capture.

He has finally settled on advocating a truce along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.

On the campaign trail previously, Trump vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that pledge, saying that ending the hostilities is proving more difficult than he anticipated.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when neither side wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.

Shawn Crosby
Shawn Crosby

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