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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although experts believe PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period focused on topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of power. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and government negotiations could take several months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.